Are You Thinking What I Was Thinking V

  • No one really knows when markets valuations are at a “peak”, most commentators and investors (Prem Watsa, Sir Michael Moritz and others) are merely applying “gut instinct” like the rest of us
  • After 7 years of “easy money” is it a surprise that we have record market prices (stocks, art and so on)
  • More people have lost money calling a market collapse than a market rise, be careful who you listen to
  • Well run businesses with strong “real” earnings and high quality management and employees will always outperform in the long-term those firms that lack those attributes
  • When retail and institutional investors have greater access to information and knowledge in real-time at less cost, why should tomorrow’s investment cycle follow yesterday’s cycle? We live in a different age.
  • With “real” unemployment and the growth of start ups in many G20 countries at near record levels, wouldn’t policymakers, politicians and media be better off talking more about our “future” prosperity than our “past” grievances
  • When I read polls suggesting  that electorates are more “disengaged” with politicians and their political parties than ever before doesn’t that tell us more about our own fears (education, self-improvement, reinvention)?
  • When you study empirical evidence, we are probably living in the most prosperous and safest decade in the past 100 years, why doesn’t it feel like that when I turn on the television news or pick up a newspaper
  • We are right to be concerned about the legacy we are leaving our children (underfunded entitlements, increasing complexity, wealth gaps) but we rarely reflect on how much wiser they will be than us (technology, health, education and other improvements)
  • We look too much at the rise of China, India and other high growth markets as a threat, when we should consider it as an opportunity
  • If you are well positioned (investor, business or employee) in healthcare, education, technology, travel and dare I say it in financial services, you are in sectors with 10 years of very strong growth
  • How many cases can you point to where great regulation has saved us from a downturn? Wouldn’t we better placed putting the onus on executives to show good judgement rather than leave it to our politicians and mandarins to tie them in knots?
  • We confuse largely “symbolic” action (an executive foregoing a bonus) all too often with “meaningful” improvements (smarter strategic decision-making, hiring better quality management and employees)
  • We “deify” celebrity leaders (Jack Welch, Sir Alex Ferguson, Sir Richard Branson) and often overstate the transfer value of their “unique” approaches. In other words their ideas were perfectly suited to the prevailing conditions in their environment but those same conditions rarely exist or in the same order in our own environment
  • Wouldn’t we better served by harnessing the power of “Big People” (an ability to apply knowledge more wisely) than “Big Data” (carving out granules of worthwhile data that must be formatted into meaningful information)?
  • In the hype around Uber, Lyft, Xiaomi and so on why are commentators, investors and analysts not asking more vociferously why so many multinationals failed to exploit these sources of innovation when they were in a far stronger position to do so? Is the boom in corporate venturing a recognition that management in many large multinationals have given up on finding hidden gems within their own business?
  • Twitter and other social media ads, why would they take precedence for a B2B business over boosting the number of peer referrals obtained from existing clients? Don’t get lost in the consumer hype.
  • When did your firm last buy from a cold caller? Wouldn’t those sending spam SMS, email and print flyers be better served attempting to forge a trusting relationship with real buyers? Perhaps they are not very bright.

 

© James Berkeley 2014. All Rights Reserved.

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