The Perils of Hazy Horizons

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One of the senior politicians in the Brexit debate urged voters on British television last night to give serious thought to the type of country and life they want to have in 40 years time. Predicting what will happen in 3 years time, as anyone sitting in the executive office of a global bank in 2004 will attest to is fraught with huge inaccuracies and serious consequences! The pace of change has never been as dramatic (technology, capital, supply of talent, societal changes and so forth).

The art of management is to balance short and long-term profitable growth and make informed decisions about the health and well-being of the organisation. To effect change successfully and bring employees with them, mid-level managers in particular need to understand how they must adjust their own behaviours and actions in highly ambiguous situations.

To make serious predictions about the long-term and to put the risks and benefits and action in the appropriate context anything more than a 5-7 year horizon is really an intellectual not a commercial debate. Even in government funded infrastructure projects and macro inter-governmental policy initiatives (climate change, energy, healthcare, education and so forth). That is why I smile when I see organisations such as Lloyd’s of London’s (2026 Vision) and other global organisations expecting that their best laid plans will be taken seriously by their key constituents. It is a collection of predictions, which the forecasters will never be held accountable for and those asked to implement it struggle to grasp what it really means for them or their colleagues.  Fact.

Let’s get back to pragmatic outcomes, alternatives, assessment of benefits/risks, timing and action within the proposed investment parameters.

© James Berkeley 2016. All Rights Reserved.

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