Archive for March, 2020

Do As I Say Not As I Do

Monday, March 30th, 2020

In the explosion of online “expert” business advice about all manner of pandemic issues, how many experts are really doing what they say in their own organisations? Being innovative, resilient and taking bold action, or merely acting like rabbits in the headlights.

Don’t be confused by big professional service firm brands. Is their demonstrable evidence that the partner is taking his or her own medicine? Most are not, they are in “crisis mode”, hunkering down or intimidated by the real consequences for their own and their fellow partners’ livelihoods and then, their clients.

Here’s my point, most of these experts don’t have real skin in their clients’ and prospects’ game. It is a case of “Heads” I win (restructuring), and “Tails” I win (asset sales). Which begs the question, why should we listen?

Silent Majority

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2020

After all the travel shaming, and carbon footprint cackle, funny how the loudest noises are now arising from those fearful about the real-world and everyday consequences of travel curtailments (businesses, jobs, education, entertainment, supply chains for essentials and so on).

Real-World Risks and Education

Monday, March 2nd, 2020

I remember history and economics school lessons vividly in the winter of 1983, at a time of immense political, economic and social change in the U.K. 3 million people out of work, the march of Thatcherism and the rolling back of labour union power. Those real-world lessons, application of conceptual learning and lively debates was some of my most enjoyable and memorable learning.

You’d hope teaching faculties around the globe are doing the exact same now for our children with their understanding of “systemic risk” (the risk of ruin). The intersection of maths, science and real-world risk. The assembly of preventative and contingent actions. Decision-making under uncertainty (high volatility or low predictability). The blowing up of ideologies and myths that aren’t supported by robust statistical and factual evidence (perceived, actual and catastrophic risks).

Into a headwind of very dangerous forecasters (journalists, WHO, medical experts), who are not experts in probability, it is easy to be misled (false positives and false negative). Don’t miss the opportunity.

Sequencing and Sequential

Monday, March 2nd, 2020

While it is important to think about the “sequencing” (movement) of a negotiation, a sale or a business improvement, it is dumb to to be beholden to a “sequential” process. One step, two step, three step.

In almost every “process”, there are a collection of interconnected issues and risks that need to be addressed concurrently. My best clients create a frame or “swimming lane” between where they are standing right now and their ideal destination within which all manner of decisions must be taken.