Archive for February, 2022

Ukraine Fears

Monday, February 28th, 2022

72 hours ago Germany was steadfast in its’ military and energy policies. As “events” have unfolded with tremendous haste so those policies have been turned on their head. Fear in any organisation creates deviations, which over a certain threshold creates a “signal” distinct from the “noise”, which occupies 99% of the daily news agenda. We are right to be fearful but only about “signal” events and behaviours.

Moving Up

Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022

We think of transitions in our schools, careers, marriages and kids but rarely, the time late in our lives when the place our family have called “home”, ceases to be the family’s ideal base, particularly for the older generation. I am talking about when the time, money and energy devoted to maintaining the home becomes a burden or our physical well-being is ill suited to the layout.

For a great many families that “decision” can take an eternity to make. Indeed, the complexity connected to moving on, is often greater than many of us understand (emotional and psychological issues) but the solution is often a lot simpler than we understand it to be.

How about we start by asking ourselves, what is the life we want to be living? Then, how do we simply and easily acquire the resources (property, support, capital etc.) to be doing that? Nothing more.

Death Trap

Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022

There is an increasing number of enterprise technology businesses (colloquially, known as “Deathtech”) intent on turning the fragmented and cumbersome end-of-life experience into a far more pleasant one. Yet look harder and a great many are simply playing at the margins (symbolic changes). Time, money and energy. If you cannot see as a next of kin, beneficiary, employer or trustee meaningful improvements in those areas, don’t get trapped in the hype.

Bad Business

Thursday, February 17th, 2022

When someone asks you to “give me a list of names (potential clients, acquisition targets, investors, employees etc), if we are successful there is a nice fee”, what they really mean is “I’d like you to play banker for my origination risk”. The chances of success, and they paying you a success fee in their mind, is beyond remote. Don’t think twice, move on.

Transition Risk

Friday, February 4th, 2022

A host of sectors are faced with seismic change (energy, retail financial services, media, gaming, hospitality and so on) brought about by changing societal mores, demographics, technology, regulation etc. The “fear” is not the change, or the new future, it is that whole industries, businesses and those whose future depends on them might inadvertently step on a “landmine” in making that transition.

For any leader and middle manager there are four key aspects that must form part of any transition plan but rarely do:

  1. Financial: earnings, balance sheet, and volatility.
  2. Non-Financial: products and services, technology, distribution, brand power, image, control and influence over competitive threats and level of ambiguity inherent in the organisation’s strategy.
  3. Business: operational policies, procedures, processes, relationships with key constituents (investors, employees, clients, business partners, suppliers, regulators etc.)
  4. Personal: the emotional and psychological issues of the the people undertaking the transition both management and employees (careers, rewards, recognition, gratification etc.)

Add others as applicable to your circumstances.

The key issue is “maximum probable loss” after preventative and contingent actions are considered. How clear are you on the actual risks you are taking now, not the risks that you should consider taking in future?

Tunnel Vision

Friday, February 4th, 2022

When you cannot see the light (future prosperity) has it ever occurred to you that your stubborn reluctance to think and act differently, is actually the problem?