I have observed some highly successful people in their fields over significant periods, who are brilliant at exploiting their “edge”. There comes a time for the majority where the business cycle, the playing field (competition) or the rules (regulation) change. The once mighty are humbled. Witness investors such as Julian Robertson, John Paulson, Paul Allen and so on. Were they great or lucky?
The truly exceptional are in a frighteningly small minority (Buffett, Munger and co). A large swathe of the “headline makers” entered or doubled down at a point in the cycle, ideally suited to their behaviour and skills.
My reminder is a simple one. An investor is defined by “time”, lauded by “returns” and destroyed by “risk”.
