Don’t try and “predict” when or if an ultra net worth individual (assets in excess of US$40 million) or family might buy or sell an asset, do try and reduce their vulnerability to future events (low-probability and high-impact risks). You “create need” (essence of marketing) by

• Drawing inferences from changes in their recent past to risks they are taking now
• Awareness of the environment they are operating in today, and will do so in the next 12 months
• Understanding the gamut of available actions, realistically, at their disposal

Those changes relate to three spheres of an ultra high net worth individual’s life: (1) family, (2) business and (3) investments and interests. Keep it simple. Complexity is for non-risk takers (academics, wealth managers, advisors) seeking to justify their value to others.

An infirmed 90 year old Saudi sheikh with a sprawling global bloodstock empire, real estate and private investments in the Middle East, Europe and the United States, is unlikely to be a significant backer of a startup space venture business. Not unless, the extended family or next generation can have a compelling reason to add it to their investment portfolio.

He and his Private Investment Office CEO, are going to be highly interested in the valuation of their Impressionist and Modern art collection, the realisation of non-core portfolio assets that provide liquidity for the family, and continued philanthropic legacy investments.

With any billionaire, what are the lifestyle choices that individual and their family are probably seeking to pursue and what are they looking to exit? Where can you be of immediate and relevant “help” now?