Transition Risk

A host of sectors are faced with seismic change (energy, retail financial services, media, gaming, hospitality and so on) brought about by changing societal mores, demographics, technology, regulation etc. The “fear” is not the change, or the new future, it is that whole industries, businesses and those whose future depends on them might inadvertently step on a “landmine” in making that transition.

For any leader and middle manager there are four key aspects that must form part of any transition plan but rarely do:

  1. Financial: earnings, balance sheet, and volatility.
  2. Non-Financial: products and services, technology, distribution, brand power, image, control and influence over competitive threats and level of ambiguity inherent in the organisation’s strategy.
  3. Business: operational policies, procedures, processes, relationships with key constituents (investors, employees, clients, business partners, suppliers, regulators etc.)
  4. Personal: the emotional and psychological issues of the the people undertaking the transition both management and employees (careers, rewards, recognition, gratification etc.)

Add others as applicable to your circumstances.

The key issue is “maximum probable loss” after preventative and contingent actions are considered. How clear are you on the actual risks you are taking now, not the risks that you should consider taking in future?

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